Institute for Research on Economics and Society – Faculty of Economics and Business – University of Indonesia

MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS SERIES: Monthly Inflation, February 2020

February 12, 2020

General inflation in January (YoY) increased by 0.08 bps from the previous month which only reached 2.59%. This increase in the inflation rate was caused by several things. First, there is the influence of seasonal factors from the supply side where the prices of several food commodities such as chilies, shallots and garlic tend to increase. The second factor is the imposition of excise duty on cigarettes and the increase in BPJS rates which took effect at the beginning of January. Seasonal factors will continue until March, while the impact of the imposition of excise and BPJS tariff increases will be temporary. People's purchasing power is relatively stable – reflected in the stagnant movement of core inflation over time. Therefore, we maintain our previous inflation prediction, namely in the range of 2,80 – 3,00% until the end of the year.

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