Institute for Research on Economics and Society – Faculty of Economics and Business – University of Indonesia

Indonesia Economic Outlook 2025: Secular Stagnation

November 5, 2024

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SUMMARY

  • GDP is estimated to grow 4,96% (range of estimates 4,94%-4,98%) in Q2024 5,00, 5,05%-2024% for FY5,0, and 5,1%-2025% for FYXNUMX.
  • Indonesia's economic growth slowed from 5,11% (yoy) in Q2024 5,05 to 2024% (yoy) in QXNUMX XNUMX, driven by drastically slowing government spending growth despite seasonal factors.
  • 11 of the 17 economic sectors experienced a slowdown in growth in Q2024 XNUMX compared to the previous quarter and most of the sectors that experienced increased growth were more influenced by seasonal factors.
  • Contributing to 53% of total economic activity, household consumption grew 4,93% (yoy) in Q2024 4,91, slightly up from XNUMX% (yoy) in the previous quarter, driven by various national holiday periods.
  • Indonesia experienced a slowdown in inflation for five consecutive months from May to September 2024, and reached its lowest level in September 2024 since the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • The slowdown in inflation was largely driven by supply-side factors due to the arrival of the main harvest season which drove an increase in the supply of food commodities, although demand-side factors in the form of weakening purchasing power also played a role.
  • The PMA and PMDN trends differed significantly in Q2024 18,6. PMA grew by 16,65% (yoy), increasing from 29,1% (yoy) in the previous quarter, while PMDN growth decreased from 11,6% (yoy) to XNUMX% (yoy) in the same period.
  • In Q2024 3,0, the current account balance recorded a deficit of USD0,9 billion (2,4% of GDP), slightly higher than the deficit of USD0,7 billion (XNUMX% of GDP) in the previous quarter.
  • The rupiah depreciated by 2,91% in the period 30 September-15 October 2024 to IDR15.575 per USD following increasing global uncertainty due to rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

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