Jakarta, LPEM FEB UI – The development of year-on-year (YoY) inflation in September 2023 is 2,08%. It was recorded that there was a decrease of -0,99% compared to annual inflation in August 2023. This indicates a decrease in the inflation rate in the last 6 months, after experiencing an increase of 0,19% in the previous month. The decline in inflation this month also recorded the lowest record in the last 12 months since September last year.
This YoY inflation development occurred in all economic sectors, including the information, communications and financial services sectors, which reached 0,06%. This marks a significant change after 21 consecutive months of deflation. Meanwhile, others, such as the food, beverage and tobacco sectors, recorded the highest inflation this month at 4,17%, followed by personal care and other services (3,68%), and foodstuffs (3,59%).
YoY core inflation reached 2,00% in September 2023, a decrease of 0,18% compared to the previous month. Government-regulated price inflation also decreased, namely 1,99% in September 2023, compared to 8,05% in August 2023, or a decrease of -6,05%. This decrease was mainly caused by the base effect of the increase in subsidized fuel prices in September 2022 which has ended, so that the contribution of gasoline to inflation in September 2023 (YoY) decreased.
Meanwhile, the YoY volatile price component increased again, reaching 3,62% in September 2023, indicating an increase of 1,20% compared to August 2023. This increase is a continuation of the trend mean reversion which will start in July 2023. This increase in inflation was triggered by soaring prices in the food, beverage and tobacco sectors and commodities, with rice and beef being the main contributors. Meanwhile, in the price category regulated by the government, gasoline and filtered clove cigarettes will contribute to inflation in September 2023. We predict that YoY inflation in October 2023 will still be in the range of 2,0-2,5%.
Complete analysis
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