Institute for Research on Economics and Society – Faculty of Economics and Business – University of Indonesia

Macroeconomic Analysis Series: Indonesia Economic Outlook Quarter-2 2023

Indonesia has been able to weather periods of inflationary pressure, high commodity prices, global monetary tightening and global supply chain disruptions well. The economy grew by 5,31% (yoy) in 2022 after again recording higher-than-expected growth of 5,01% (yoy) in the fourth quarter of 2022. The continued significant economic growth was mainly supported by strong domestic demand along with controlled health situation and strong production activities thanks to commodity windfall. This is also reflected in sectoral figures with growth in the sector contributing to the largest GDP, namely the manufacturing industry, reaching 4,89% (yoy) in 2022 or recorded as the highest annual growth rate since 2013. From the manufacturing industry sub-sector, significant growth in the manufacturing industry is driven by its main contributor, namely food and beverage manufacturing. The double-digit growth in machinery and equipment manufacturing as well as basic metals has also accelerated the growth of the manufacturing industry while reflecting the strong production activities in Indonesia throughout 2022. On the expenditure side, the solid household consumption growth rate was 4,93% (yoy) and investment growth was 3,87% (yoy) has provided a significant contribution to GDP growth. All spending components grew positively in the fourth quarter of 2022, except for government spending which grew negatively by 4,77% (yoy) due to a decrease in health and social spending for control and stimulus related to Covid-19.

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