Institute for Research on Economics and Society – Faculty of Economics and Business – University of Indonesia

MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS SERIES: Indonesia Economic Outlook Quarter-I 2023

February 3, 2023

Despite the gloomy global economic outlook due to disruption from the prolonged spread of Covid-19, geopolitical tensions, rising food and energy prices, and high inflation throughout 2022, Indonesia has managed to grow at 5,72% (yoy) in Quarter-III 2022. This figure is the highest level in the last ten years and marks the third consecutive quarter with a higher-than-expected growth rate. This growth was mainly supported by strong demand and production activity because Indonesia succeeded in channeling commodity windfall profits to increase the budget and delay the increase in fuel prices. Moreover, relatively low growth in the same period the previous year also contributed to higher than expected growth in Quarter-III 2022. The manufacturing industry as the largest contributing sector to GDP recorded a significant increase in growth from 4,01% (yoy) in Quarter-II 2022 to 4,83% (yoy) in Quarter-III 2022. From the expenditure side, strong household consumption of 5,39% (yoy) and investment growth of 4,96% (yoy) played an important role in encouraging economic growth in the third quarter of 2022.

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