Following expectations at the end of last year, we see that the economy in the first quarter of 2019 will improve slightly. A series of unexpected trends since November such as the return of capital to emerging markets, lower oil prices, and negotiations between the US and China have brought positive sentiment to the domestic market. The influence of the influx of foreign portfolio investment in the last three months has improved the Rupiah to become one of the currencies that has experienced the fastest progress along with the currencies of Thailand, the Philippines and Malaysia, where the Rupiah in the last two months has been around IDR 14.000 per US dollar . The downward trend in oil prices in the next two quarters due to excess global production could provide a respite for the government as the decline is likely to improve the trade balance and reduce pressure on the government's decision to hold fuel prices at the same level until the next election.

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