Institute for Research on Economics and Society – Faculty of Economics and Business – University of Indonesia

Macroeconomic Analysis Series: Indonesia Economic Outlook 2023

November 3, 2022

Indonesia's economy continues to grow above expectations. Indonesia's economy grew by 5,44% (yoy) in the second quarter of 2022, the second highest since 2013 and only lower than the growth rate of 7,07% (yoy) in the second quarter of 2021. This condition was driven by several factors that played a role in Indonesia's GDP growth rate is high. First, the momentum for domestic economic recovery continues due to Indonesia's relatively late recovery in health aspects so that Indonesia is still enjoying the impact of the low-base effect and pent-up demand during the second quarter of 2022. The second factor is the seasonal aspect of the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr periods which fall in the second quarter. this year contributed to supporting the growth of public consumption. With a portion reaching 53% of GDP, household consumption grew to 5,51% (yoy) in the second quarter of 2022, jumping from 4,34% (yoy) in the previous quarter. Third, the surge in commodity prices due to escalating geopolitical tensions and the continued global economic recovery benefits Indonesia as a net exporter of major energy commodities, such as coal and CPO, in the form of high export values ​​and tax revenues. Exports increased by 19,74% (yoy) and taxes minus subsidies increased by 39,42% (yoy) so that it was recorded as the highest net tax revenue since 2015. The final factor driving strong economic growth in the second quarter of 2022 was the Indonesian government's decision to increase BMM subsidies and delaying price increases amidst skyrocketing global oil prices help control inflation and maintain people's purchasing power. Inflation during the April-June 2022 period turned out to have an average of 'only' 3,79% (yoy) and peaked during the quarter in June with inflation of 4,35% (yoy), far below the October inflation figure of 5,71% ( yoy) and the highest point this year was 5,95% (yoy) last September.

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