The current account deficit and the political period will be the two main topics that will affect the Indonesian economy in 2019. Relatively weak export performance due to the high dependence of exports on raw materials, especially on crude palm oil, and higher imports due to the push for infrastructure development caused Indonesia to return to experienced a trade deficit in Quarter II-2018 and Quarter III-2018, and we do not see the possibility of a significant improvement in the trade balance in 2019. The risk of a downward trend in Indonesia's trade performance will also still be quite large because a full-scale trade war could threaten to slow down GDP growth in China and the United States, which directly contributed 24,2% of Indonesia's export value in 2017. Trade risks along with rising interest rates and falling FDI into Indonesia will put additional pressure on exports and the Rupiah exchange rate in the medium term.

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