Institute for Research on Economics and Society – Faculty of Economics and Business – University of Indonesia

Macroeconomic Analysis Series: BI Board of Governor Meeting, December 2023

El-Nino still has a significant impact on increasing inflation. Annual general inflation increased to 2,86% (yoy) in November 2023. In contrast to previous months, the source of inflationary pressure from the food group has begun to shift from rice commodities to other commodities such as red chilies, cayenne peppers and shallots. Although the Indonesian Government has succeeded in maintaining rice prices through import policies, further policy responses are still needed as the impact of El-Nino spreads to various other commodities. The decline in energy prices is quite helpful in reducing the rise in inflation in November 2023. From the external side, the Fed's decision to withhold FFR and additional supply of foreign currency was driven by the revision of the DHE policy, encouraging the strengthening of the Rupiah which was recorded at IDR15,500 per USD in mid-December 2023. Currently Currently, the Rupiah is one of the currencies that will be least affected by global economic conditions during 2023. The fairly controlled inflation rate and the solid performance of the Rupiah over the past month are the basis that BI needs to hold its benchmark interest rate at 6,00% in December 2023 .

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