Institute for Research on Economics and Society – Faculty of Economics and Business – University of Indonesia

MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS SERIES: Bank Indonesia Board of Governors Meeting, April 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic has caused shocks that we have never seen before, at least in the last 100 years. The disruption caused by Covid19 has affected all aspects of life globally. Apart from posing a threat to the health of millions of people, Covid-19 is also causing economic disruption not only at the individual level, but also on a national and global scale. The resulting shock has spread to the financial sector due to increased volatility and uncertainty, causing global investors to shift their portfolios from "risky assets" to "safe-have assets". This “flight-to-safety” behavior has triggered capital outflows from developing countries, causing a shortage of liquidity in foreign exchange markets and threatening exchange rate stability. Furthermore, disruptions in the supply chain and a credit crisis in the banking sector pose a risk of shortages in the supply of goods during the Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr periods which have the potential to cause inflation to rise due to supply shocks.

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