Price movements in October 2025 were primarily driven by shifts in fresh food supplies and a slight increase in government-regulated price components, while pressure from a number of dominant commodities in recent months has begun to ease, keeping the overall rate under control. This combination pushed annual headline inflation up to 2,86% (YoY) from 2,65% (YoY) in September. Inflation continued to rise, following the current year's trend of annual increases due to the low-base effect of the previous year. Meanwhile, on a monthly basis, headline inflation was recorded at 0,28% (mtm), compared to 0,08% (mtm) in October 2024. This increase aligns with the historical trend, where October consistently experiences monthly inflation, although the higher increase this year was due to a surge in certain commodities.

Volatile price groups continue to support high annual inflation, although the impact on monthly inflation is relatively small. Volatile inflation reached 6,59% (YoY) annually, up from 6,44% (YoY) in September, while the monthly movement was only 0,03% (mtm) and much more controlled than the previous volatile period in the current year. Commodities that continue to contribute significantly to annual inflation include chilies and broiler chicken, which are exerting pressure in many regions. Meanwhile, rice, shallots, and cayenne pepper actually declined on a monthly basis, thus restraining the increase in monthly inflation in October. The decline in rice prices compared to the previous month is in line with the accelerated distribution of Government Rice Reserves (CBP), market operations, and rice food assistance to households, which helped ease the availability of this food in the market, although risks from weather and logistics remain entering the final quarter of the year.

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