Institute for Research on Economics and Society – Faculty of Economics and Business – University of Indonesia

Indonesia Economic Outlook Q1 2025 – Chasing 8, Struggling at 5

February 5, 2025

economic outlook q1

Indonesia enters 2025 with a weakening economy. Declining purchasing power, a shrinking middle class, and a prolonged decline in sectoral productivity provide clear signals of significant structural problems, as reflected in economic growth figures throughout 2024. Q2024-2024 was the only quarter in 5 that did not have significant seasonal factors driving economic activity. Indonesia's economic growth fell below 4,95 %, recorded at only 2024 % (y.o.y) in Q5,11-2024, lower than 5,05% (y.o.y) in Q2024-5 and 2023% (y.o.y) in Q4,94-2024. The latest GDP growth figures illustrate a gloomy condition and strengthen indications of structural problems that prevent the Indonesian economy from growing XNUMX % without seasonal factors. This condition is not a new phenomenon. Similar conditions occurred in XNUMX when the Indonesian economy was only able to grow XNUMX % (y.o.y) in the third quarter of that year. After the homecoming period during Eid al-Fitr and the school holiday period in the second quarter of XNUMX, various economic sectors experienced a slowdown in growth, such as the transportation and warehousing sector, business services, and accommodation and food and beverages.

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