2011

Increasing the Use of Domestic Motorized Vehicles Through Cheap Cars and Analysis of the Welfare Impact: Study of Reducing Import Duty and PPnBM Rates

This research aims to determine the socio-economic impacts that can be estimated by government policy in determining the size of the Import Duty and VAT BM tariff components in determining car prices. It is thought that the reduction in import duties and VAT on BM will be able to reduce car prices so that they are affordable for the majority of consumers, especially the welfare impact for consumers, car manufacturers or assembly industries, the government as well as the impact on growing the domestic automotive industry. Apart from that, it is also to find out who benefits from the policy and who suffers losses. This research uses partial welfare analysis to see the impact of reducing import duty rates and VAT on BM. To estimate the demand and supply functions, econometric models are used. The results of this research show that import duties and VAT on BM approaching zero percent for all car categories will have a greater impact on people's welfare. But on the other hand, the loss of government revenue is also getting bigger and the loss of producer surplus is also getting bigger. Government policy implications are taken based on changes in relative prices, changes in relative demand and changes in people's welfare relative to current conditions by weighing the advantages and disadvantages and in the interests of developing the domestic automotive industry.

Keywords: Import Duty Tariff, VAT on BM, Automotive Industry, Cheap Cars.

 

Study on Estimating the Impact of SMS Service Competition on Changes in Consumer Welfare

SMS, also known as Short Message Service, is the main service for cellular industry players, especially operators that use FWA technology. Along with increasing competition between telecommunications industry players, in 2004 – 2007, there was the implementation of different tariffs, namely on-net (between operators) and off-net tariffs (between operators). The determination of this tariff has become a concern for the KPPU, because it can significantly reduce consumer welfare. This research aims to determine the effect of KPPU's decision on short message service (SMS) competition and calculate the impact of increasing short message service (SMS) competition on changes in consumer welfare. Apart from that, this study seeks to determine a certain nominal amount related to changes in consumer welfare due to reductions in short message (SMS) service rates which tend to increase consumer utility. This study uses the Compensating Variation (CV) and Equivalent Variation (EV) methods to explain changes in consumer utility. The results of this research show that competition is beneficial for consumers. The KPPU's decision to cancel the agreement between several operators has encouraged increased competition in SMS rates between operators. Through the CV method, the total welfare obtained in the period 2007 - 2009 was 0.0009% of Indonesia's real GDP in 2009. The survey showed changes in respondents' behavior in using SMS and talk services, as a result of cheaper rates. The KPPU's decision will encourage the emergence of new players. The increasing competition in this industry makes it an important aspect that the KPPU must pay attention to the increasingly rapid development of telecommunications technology in the world. Knowledge and understanding regarding the characteristics of the telecommunications industry are very necessary to create competitive competition policies.

Keywords: Short Message Service (SMS), KPPU, Compensating Variation, Equivalent Variation, Telecommunications Industry.

 

Study of Stakeholders' Level of Confidence in the Credibility of Bank Indonesia (BI) Policy in the Banking Sector for the Period January – April 2011

Bank Indonesia has an important role in maintaining financial system stability which prioritizes managing banking policies with prudent and consistent principles. BI as the banking authority is expected to be able to show stakeholders that the banking policies formulated are accountable, independent and effective in encouraging the banking intermediation function. The aim of this research is to obtain an initial assessment of the performance of BI's task implementation during the first quarter of 2011. This research uses qualitative and quantitative methods obtained from Focus Group Discussions and descriptive statistical analysis. The results of this research show that the average level of stakeholder confidence in the credibility of BI policies in the banking sector is 4,41 or quite confident and confident. Implementation of Bank Indonesia policies must be able to demonstrate a strong stand point and not be affected by market pressure by improving the banking intermediation function and maintaining banking health.

Keywords: Bank Indonesia, Stakeholders, Focus Group Discussion, Descriptive Statistics, Banking.

 

Phase II Final Report

EVALUATION ANALYSIS OF THE REVOCATION POLICY CAPPING INCREASE IN BASIC INDUSTRIAL ELECTRICITY TARIFF

Revocation policy capping An increase in the basic electricity tariff for industry will increase the burden of industrial electricity costs, so it is necessary to carry out an evaluation analysis of this policy. This research aims to analyze the impact of revocation capping Industrial TDL on company survival, industrial competitiveness, inflation and business competition climate in Indonesia. This research also aims to analyze the effectiveness of the agreement win-win solution between PLN and industrial customers affected by the revocation capping TDL. The methodology used is descriptive-qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, and in-depth interviews.

The results of this study indicate that the average increase in total costs for companies that enjoy capping TDL will only increase between 1% and 2% if capping TDL is revoked, the survival power of companies in the textile industry is quite varied, while the survival power of ceramic industry companies is generally quite strong, the relationship between Basic Electricity Tariffs and industrial competitiveness is weak, policy capping TDL has led to price discrimination and has the potential to give rise to unfair competition, the impact of elimination capping TDL against inflation is very limited and small, and there are indications that electricity consumption per industrial customer is more efficient after the elimination capping TDL. Furthermore, the results of this study also show that it is difficult to conclude the effectiveness of the installment payment scheme if it is related to conditions cash flow There are very few companies and companies that participate in the installment scheme. Based on the results of this research, the elimination policy capping TDL can continue to be implemented, around 18% to 20% of companies in the textile industry need to be given assistance to restructure production machines, and the installment scheme is given a longer installment period but is followed by a selection process accompanied by an audited company cash flow report.

Keywords: Basic Electricity Tariff, Capping TDL, industry

 

Second Draft Book

PRELIMINARY DESIGN OF THE PAPUA PROVINCE MEDIUM TERM REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2011-2016

Based on Law Number 25 of 2004 concerning the National Development Planning System, Regional Governments are obliged to prepare Regional Medium Term Development Plans (RPJM) for a period of five years. The preparation of the Papua Province RPJMD aims to provide an official reference in determining annual program and activity priorities, provide benchmarks for evaluating the annual performance of each SKPD, provide an overview of the general condition of the region in the regional and national constellation as well as an understanding of the direction and objectives for realizing the vision and mission Papua Province, maintain the continuity of development processes and results implemented for five years, and increase the roles and responsibilities of SKPD and the community in planning, implementing and supervising development. The initial draft of the RPJMD for Papua Province was created by outlining a general overview of regional conditions, explaining and analyzing strategic issues developing in the region and formulating general policies for financial management and funding framework. Furthermore, five indications of policy direction in Papua Province are recommended, namely improving community welfare through people driven development, increase economic competitiveness, improve infrastructure and environmental management, organize regional government, and improve security, order, law enforcement and human rights.

Keywords: RPJMD, Papua Province, Development

 

 

 

 

Final Study Report

Data Collection Survey on Regional Development and Decentralization in Indonesia

 

A decade long of decentralized implementation in Indonesia since 2001 is still looking for an equilibrium position. This survey tries to review the implementation of decentralization and how the existing regulations affect it, programs related to regional development and regulations related to infrastructure development acceleration. Methodologies used in this study were qualitative measure, quantitative measure, study area and approaches to good practice of community development. The results of this study are some of government functions have been transferred to local government as a result of decentralized policy, the local planning is not always in line with national planning due to the large number of parties involved and the excessive intervention from local parliament members and the results of regional development planning are a bit far from the initial expectations in which the western part of the region is growing higher and equipped with much better infrastructures and other public facilities than its counterpart in the eastern part of Indonesia.

 

Keywords: Decentralization, Indonesia

 

 

2012

Survey of Customer/Prospective Customers'/Prospective Customers' Ability and Willingness to Pay for Medan LNG

LNG is liquefied natural gas, so the liquefaction, transportation and regasification processes require more costs compared to natural gas which flows through pipes. PGN is currently starting the construction of an LNG Receiving Terminal in Medan City. To determine the LNG FSRT design capacity and sales and purchase contracts with LNG suppliers, information is needed regarding potential demand and the ability and willingness to pay customers and prospective industrial customers for LNG in Medan. This research aims to identify comparisons between LNG and other energy sources for the industrial sector in Medan. The method used in this research uses secondary data and field surveys of customers/potential customers for Medan LNG focused on the manufacturing industry. The results of this research show that the fuels that can be switched to using gas are fuel oil (diesel), coal and LPG as well as PLN electricity. The company's average ability to pay (ATP) to pay for energy sources that produce 1MMBTU of energy is 17.49 US$ per MMBTU, while the company's average WTP for PGN natural gas reaches 13.03 US$ per MMBTU. The ATP and WTP values ​​which are higher than the current natural gas price provide room for PGN to impose a minimum WTP ex-LNG natural gas price.

Keywords: LNG, PGN, Willingness to Pay, Avarage to Pay.

 

Analysis of the Social Benefits and Costs of the Coal Railway Project in Central Kalimantan

The National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) has published a list of projects offered to the private sector that can be financed under the PPP scheme. One of the projects that has been tendered is the Puruk Cahu-Bangkuang Coal Railway with a length of 185 km, located in Central Kalimantan Province. The development of this railway line will include the provision of land, railway infrastructure, signals, telecommunications and electrical systems, rolling stock, stations, etc. which will cost up to USD 2,3 billion. This research aims to analyze the social benefits and costs of the coal railway construction project. This study uses a combination of quantitative and qualitative approaches with secondary data and field surveys in Central Kalimantan Province. The results of this research show that there is an additional net benefit (increment net benefit) in the mining and quarrying sector. The results of the benefit and cost analysis using the social discount rate scenario of 5,8 and 10 percent show that the net present value of net economic benefit is positive and the mid-life benefit ratio is more than 1. This indicates that the railway project coal in Central Kalimantan is economically feasible to implement.

Keywords: Railway, Central Kalimantan, Coal, Social Costs.

 

Social Mapping in Teluk Bituni Regency, A Comprehensive Study in Sumuri District.

Teluk Bituni Regency, was originally one of the districts/sub-districts of the Manokwari regency area. The poverty level in this area is high, reaching 47,62%. Efforts to reduce the poverty rate in this district have been carried out by the government and the private sector but have not reduced significantly. Genting Oil Kasuri Pte. Ltd is one of the companies conducting exploration in Bituni Regency. It is important for companies to make investments not only economic investments but also social investments. The aim of this research is to map the characteristics of the community and related stakeholders, as well as map the economic activities of the community and the role of women in various economic activities. The approach used in this research is a qualitative approach using the PRA (Participatory Rapid Appraisal) method by making village maps, conducting interviews, focus group discussions (FGD), and involved observation. The results of this research explain that it is important for companies to identify and map boundaries in a participatory manner by involving various elements, including society, government and other authorities. The results of this mapping can be used to create programs that can reduce poverty levels more effectively.

Keywords: Bituni Bay, Participatory Rapid Appraisal, Social Mapping.

 

 

Baseline Survey Analysis in the PT RAPP HTI Area

This report explains the process and results of descriptive analysis from initial observations (Baseline Survey) regarding the social and economic conditions of the community prior to the start of PT RAPP's plant life and HTI development program on the Kampar Peninsula, as well as the community around the PT RAPP Mill (Ring 1 Mill). There are two important hypotheses in the background section of this study, namely: First, the presence of RAPP in the HTI activity unit will have a positive impact on various aspects of life in the surrounding community, especially social and economic aspects. Second, the sustainability of Milp Pulp and Paper RAPP has a positive impact on various aspects of life for surrounding households. To test the first and second hypotheses, current (2010) and future sample data are needed to see the level of change over a certain period of time. The results of this research are based on population and employment, housing, education, health, economy, human development index (HDI). Based on the HDI estimated figures, there are two villages with upper middle status, six villages with lower middle status, and two villages with low status. Recommendations to improve the welfare of the community around the PT RAPP HTI area, each village requires improving the quality of all infrastructure and means of life.

Keywords: Baseline Survey, HTI, PT RAPP, Human Development Index (HDI)

 

Study of the State Financial Legal Framework Regarding the Expansion of the State's Role and Activities in Economic Transactions.

The dynamic development of the global economy has encouraged the government to expand economic transactions in all forms in order to encourage the expansion of the government's role in the economy for the prosperity of the people in various sectors, especially infrastructure, guarantees for credit financing, and control of natural resources. In this way, the state has the ability to control the scale of financial and natural resource products that utilize and even control the market with its protection while still protecting the interests of society. On the other hand, the government, in safeguarding the public interest, prefers economic stability. The aim of this study is to identify how the legal matrix expands the government's role in economic transactions, particularly infrastructure financing, credit financing guarantees, and patterns of government investment activities. The study method used uses an approach that is based on legal science which intersects with economics. Research is delivered in a prescriptive-all inclusive- analytical form. The results of this study show that the legal matrix for the role and economic activities of the government in economic transactions is not running optimally because several instruments are not yet consistent. The policy recommendation obtained is that the expansion of the government's role and activities in economic transactions needs to be born from policy regulations (discretionary policy), relying on the legitimacy aspect.

Keywords: Legal Matrix, Economic Transactions, Prescriptive-all inclusive-analytical, Discretionary Policy.

 

Final report

ANALYSIS OF VPTI MANDATORY COMMODITY IMPORTS: MOBILE PHONES, CHILDREN'S TOYS AND APPAREL

 

Verification or Technical Tracing Activities (VPTI) are implemented by the Indonesian Government as an instrument that helps minimize import fraud, control trade flows while supporting the development of national production activities. Seeing the role of VPTI activities, a comprehensive analysis of import data obtained from VPTI activities is needed. The commodities that are the focus of the study are Cellular Telephone products (HS 8517120000), Children's Toys (various products in the HS 9503 commodity group) and Apparel (various products in the HS 61, 62 and 63 commodity groups). From the results of the study three important conclusions can be drawn. First, Indonesia's position as an important market for these three products, with the main country of origin being China. Apart from that, there are differences in import recording by BPS and VPTI. Second, there are similarities in the determinants of imports and the influence of barriers (tariffs) on imports. Third, VPTI can identify increases in state revenues from differences in reporting tariffs on imported products.

Keywords: VPTI, imports, tariffs, commodities

 

Final report

Analysis of the Availability, Use and Price of Palm Oil Shells on Sumatra Island

Preliminary data shows that many industries are starting to look at palm shells as an alternative energy, especially when the price of diesel and natural gas increases. This trend has caused palm oil shells, which were previously considered waste, to now be considered a by-product of the palm oil processing industry. Unfortunately, until now there has been no mapping of the supply and use of palm oil shells in Indonesia (especially on the island of Sumatra). This research aims to analyze the availability, use and price of palm oil shells, as well as the availability of empty fruit bunches and palm fiber on the island of Sumatra. To estimate and project palm oil production, a regression model was developed. Next, to estimate the price of palm oil shells, a transmission and market integration analysis was carried out using a simple correlation method, the VAR Model (Vector Autoregressive), causality test and cointegration regression which is estimated using secondary data. Based on the results of the analysis, five things can be concluded. First, the availability of palm oil shells in Sumatra in 2012 is estimated to reach 3.9 million tons to 6 million tons. Second, the availability of empty fruit bunches in Sumatra in 2012 is estimated to reach 18.7 million tons to 20 million tons. Third, the availability of palm fiber in Sumatra in 2012 is estimated to reach 10.1 million tons to 11.6 million tons. Fourth, the shells, empty fruit bunches and palm fiber are mostly used for the purposes of the palm oil processing factories (PKS) themselves. Meanwhile, palm oil shells are also used for road pavers and the rest is sold. Fifth, the price of palm oil shells is cointegrated with the export price of CPO (in this case the price of CPO in Malaysia) and ICP.

Keywords: palm oil shells, CPO, Sumatra

 

 

 

 

 

Final report

SURVEY OF CUSTOMERS/PROSPECTIVE CUSTOMERS' CAPABILITY AND WILLINGNESS TO PAY FOR GAS EX LNG WEST JAVA

 

Data from the 2007-2015 Indonesian Gas Balance shows that REGION III, which covers Central Sumatra, South and West Java, will experience a supply shortage of 1404 MMSCFD in 2015. Therefore, the Government has assigned PGN to build LNG Receiving Terminal in West Java/Banten (Jakarta Bay). This research aims to: (1) Find out the competitiveness of gas ex-LNG on other fuels for industry in West Java; (2) Know the planned gas usage pattern ex-LNG by industry in West Java; (3) Know the position demand short medium and long term on gas ex-LNG in West Java; (4) Knowing the ability and willingness to pay for gas from industries in West Java ex-LNG; (5) Get recommendations range gas prices ex-LNG that is acceptable to the industry. The data used in this research are secondary data and primary data using field surveys. Based on the results of this research, it can be concluded that development LNG Receiving Terminal in Jakarta Bay is very appropriate because the West Java region has economic potential and is the center of the manufacturing industry in Indonesia. Nearly 60% of companies that are not yet PGN customers and currently still use fuel oil (diesel) will be willing to replace diesel with natural gas if natural gas available, the average company WTP for natural gas energy of 1 MMBTU is 17,13 to 21,57 and if the price of natural gas ex-LNG determined respectively at 18, 20 and 22 USD per MMBTU, then the average additional gas contract volume by PGN customers will respectively be 25,76%, 13,97% and 5,82% compared to the current contract volume.

Keywords: ex-LNG, West Java, PGN, LNG Receiving Terminal, Jakarta Bay

 

 

 

 

Final report

Study of the Impact of Electricity Tariff Adjustments on Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises as well as Social and Economic Impacts

 

The DPR Commission VII working meeting with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources on 29 September 2011 agreed that before the TDL increase policy in April 2012 was implemented, it was necessary to study the impact of the TDL increase on micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), as well as the social impact on society and the macro economy as a whole. whole. This research aims to analyze the impact of electricity tariff adjustments on the development of MSMEs, the national economy and the possibility of social unrest. To achieve this goal, this research uses an analysis of the electricity cost structure of MSMEs as well as an analysis of the survival power of MSMEs, a VAR model analysis to simulate the impact of TDL increases on inflation, an analysis of the retail trade index, consumer tendency index, business tendency index, manufacturing production index and analysis of the Input Output Model as well as analysis of the experience of TDL increases in 2003 and 2010. The research results show that if TDL increases by 10% then the effect of the TDL increase on the development of MSMEs is very small, the direct impact of a 10% increase in TDL on inflation can reach 0,3, 0,4% to 0,9%, while economic growth will decrease by around XNUMX% and the increase in TDL will not have a significant economic impact and will be socially acceptable.

 

Keywords: TDL, MSMEs, inflation, economic growth, economy, social